Dubai's record first quarter: AED 252bn in transactions and what Cavendish Maxwell found underneath

By Ansh Virmani, CEO12 May 2026Market

The first quarter of 2026 set a record, and for once the headline number and the underlying data tell a consistent story. Here is what the Dubai Land Department reported, what Cavendish Maxwell's quarterly review adds, and what we take from both.

The DLD headline

According to the Dubai Land Department, real estate transactions in Dubai reached AED 252 billion in Q1 2026, a 31% year-on-year increase in value and a 6% rise in volume, with a 14% rise in new investors entering the market.

What Cavendish Maxwell found

Cavendish Maxwell's Dubai Residential Market Performance Q1 2026 report puts the residential piece at roughly 44,200 sales worth AED 139.1 billion, up 4.6% and 21.5% year on year respectively. Three findings matter for buyers:

• Off-plan dominates. Off-plan accounted for 73% of transactions, with values of AED 105.5 billion, up 34.6% year on year. Nearly 92% of off-plan purchases were made directly from developers.
• Price growth is slowing. Average residential sales prices reached AED 1,683 per square foot, up 0.6% quarter on quarter and 9.6% year on year, which Cavendish Maxwell notes is the slowest annual growth since Q1 2023. Villa and townhouse gross yields stood at 5.0%.
• Supply is arriving late. Around 12,900 residential units were completed in Q1 2026, up 23.1% year on year and the highest quarterly delivery in three years, yet well below the roughly 30,300 units initially projected for the quarter. Construction delays and phased handovers continue to moderate the pace of new supply.

The prime market, separately

At the top end, Knight Frank's Wealth Report prime residential index for 2026 confirmed Dubai as the world's number one market for homes above US$10 million, with around 500 such sales in 2025. Prime and mainstream continue to run at different speeds.

Three things we take from Q1

1. Allocations matter. When 73% of the market is off-plan and 92% of that is direct from developers, launch-day access is where the pricing edge sits. It is also where developer selection matters most.
2. Slowing growth is not falling prices. A 9.6% annual rise that is "the slowest since 2023" is still a 9.6% rise. Waiting for a correction has been expensive since 2022; that is a fact about the past, not a forecast.
3. Delays cut both ways. Late completions support prices in the ready market and delay income for off-plan buyers. We check every developer's delivery history before recommending a payment plan.

If you would like your brief read against the Q1 numbers, the districts that outperformed and the ones that did not, send it over.

Three questions clients ask

Does 73% off-plan mean the ready market is weak?

No. Off-plan wins on the number of deals; ready property carries the larger tickets, including most villa and prime transactions. They are two healthy markets with different buyers.

Should I wait for the supply wave to lower prices?

Deliveries are running well behind schedule, which is why the wave keeps being pushed out. Waiting has been expensive since 2022, but the past is not a forecast; what you can control is unit selection and the developer's delivery record.

Which data should I trust?

The Dubai Land Department for primary transaction data, and the consultancies, Cavendish Maxwell, Knight Frank, CBRE and ValuStrat, for analysis. Treat agency blogs, including ours, as commentary on those sources.

Ansh Virmani

CEO of TVG Realtors and The Virmani Group. Boston University mathematics and economics graduate, licensed Dubai broker and Country Director of BRICS CCI UAE. He publishes weekly at virmaniviews.com.

TVG Realtors is an independent brokerage. Market figures are quoted from the named third-party sources as published on the dates cited and may have been revised since. Nothing here is investment, legal or tax advice.